Analysis of Media Strategies for Japan's Nuclear Wastewater Discharge Incident - A Tripartite Stochastic Evolutionary Game Approach

Abstract

The Japanese nuclear wastewater discharge into the ocean has attracted worldwide attention and discussion, and media coverage has significantly shaped the evolution of this event. This paper analyzes the strategic behavior of three different media entities-Japanese media, media from short-distance countries (SDM), and media from long-distance countries (LDM)-by constructing a stochastic evolutionary game model. To account for external environmental uncertainties, Gaussian white noise is introduced into the replicated dynamic equations. Stability conditions are then established and numerical approximations are computed by stochastic Taylor expansions. Subsequent numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the evolution of the tripartite dynamics. The results of the study are as follows: 1) Japanese media tend to choose the non-positive reporting strategy in the current scenario, while SDM tends to choose the positive reporting strategy. LDM generally takes a neutral stance, with a gradual decline in the tendency to report positively. 2) The decision-making process of Japanese media and LDM depends on several factors, especially the coefficients of public opinion impact, economic impact intensity, loss of sponsorship by Japanese media, as well as political and prestige influences, which significantly affect the evolutionary trajectories and results. In addition, SDM shows a propensity for positive reporting. The sponsorships acquired by SDM have minimal influence on the strategic decisions of Japanese media. 3) The coefficient of public opinion influence significantly affects both the extent of change and the speed of convergence in the strategic choices of decision-makers. Similarly, the intensity of economic influence significantly affects the stability of the decision-making. It is more important to adjust the coefficient of public opinion influence than to adjust the intensity of economic influence. This study combines stochastic evolutionary gaming and scenario analysis methods to provide new insights aimed at enhancing media attention and promoting positive coverage of the Japan nuclear wastewater discharge incident. The goal is to encourage various stakeholders to engage in unbiased and constructive coverage of this incident, thereby protecting the marine environment and promoting sustainable development.