The Impact of Population Aging on Food Production: An Empirical Study Based on Cross-Country Panel Data

Abstract

The stability of food production is crucial for global food security, yet the impact of population aging remains unclear amid the global aging trend. Using 4,094 samples from 162 countries from 1991 to 2020, this study finds that population aging has a significant negative impact on food production. However, this influence shows great heterogeneity in terms of aging level, urbanization level, income level, and geographical location. Specifically, the effect of population aging on food production is not significant in countries with severe aging. However, this negative impact is obvious in countries with other stage of aging. For countries under initial stage of urbanization, the effect of population aging on food production is not significant. However, for countries under other stages of urbanization, such as mature and final stages of urbanization, the negative effect becomes evident.  Additionally, in middle-income countries, this effect is not significant. However, in low-income countries, population aging is significantly positively correlated with food production. On the contrary, a significant negative correlation is observed in high-income countries. In Oceania, this effect is not noticeable. In Asia, the Americas and Africa, aging is significantly negatively correlated with food production. However, in European countries, a positive effect is observed. Besides, this study also find that the proportion of agricultural employment and fertilizer use play partial mediating roles in the relationship between population aging and food production. Those findings offer important empirical evidence for global food security and sustainable agricultural development, offering policy insights to mitigate aging’s challenges.