Integrated LEC Risk Assessment and Reliability Enhancement for Downhole Tools in Ultra-High Temperature and High-Pressure Offshore Environments

Abstract

The reliability of downhole tool systems is critical to ensuring the safety and efficiency of offshore oil and gas operations. However, the marine testing phase of these systems involves significant risks, which, if mismanaged, may result in severe accidents. This study employs Job Hazard Analysis (JHA) to establish a systematic risk evaluation framework aimed at comprehensively identifying, assessing, and prioritizing potential failure modes during the sea trials of ultra-high-temperature and high-pressure downhole tools. By integrating multi-source data—including historical failure databases, expert knowledge, and quantitative assessment models—a data-driven risk analysis system was developed. The research outcomes accurately pinpoint high-risk failure modes and their cascading effects, while proposing targeted risk mitigation measures encompassing both technical enhancements and management optimizations. The methodologies and practical strategies presented in this study provide a scientific foundation for improving the safety and reliability of downhole tool testing in offshore environments. These contributions hold substantial theoretical and practical implications for reducing operational risks, preventing environmental incidents, and advancing the sustainable development of marine oil and gas resources.